The Russian-Ukrainian War was the most important international event after the Cold War. It ended the post-Cold War period and opened a new international order.
1. Russia’s posture in this war has become increasingly passive and unfavorable, and it has shown signs of failure.
The main reasons for Russia’s failure are:
First, after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia has always been in a historical process of continuous decline. This decline is first and foremost a continuation of the decline of the Soviet Union before the disintegration, and is also related to the mistakes of the Russian ruling clique in domestic and foreign policies. Western sanctions have intensified this process. The so-called revival or revitalization of Russia under the leadership of Putin is a false proposition that does not exist at all. The decline of Russia is manifested in its economy, military, science and technology, politics, society and other fields, and has also had a serious negative impact on the Russian military and its combat power. .
Second, the failure of the Russian blitzkrieg, the failure to make a quick decision indicates that Russia is beginning to fail. The economic and financial resources that are extremely disproportionate to its so-called military superpower status are really difficult to support a high-tech war that costs hundreds of millions of dollars a day. The predicament of the Russian army’s defeat due to poverty can be seen everywhere on the battlefield. Every day the war drags on is a heavy burden on Russia.
Third, Russia’s advantages over Ukraine in terms of military and economic strength have been offset by Ukraine’s resolute and tenacious resistance and the huge, continuous and effective assistance of Western countries to Ukraine. The generational differences between Russia and the United States and other NATO countries in the fields of weapon technology and equipment, military concepts and combat modes have made the advantages and disadvantages of the two sides more prominent.
Fourth, modern warfare is bound to be a hybrid warfare, covering military, economic, political, diplomatic, public opinion, propaganda, intelligence, information and other fields. Russia is not only passive on the battlefield, but has lost in other fields. This determines that it is only a matter of time before Russia is finally defeated.
Fifth, when and how this war will end is beyond Russia’s control. Russia’s desire to end the war as soon as possible, while ensuring the main vested gains, has failed. In this sense, Russia has lost its strategic leadership and initiative.
2. The intensity and intensity of confrontation in the next stage of this war may be further enhanced.
The possibility of expansion and upgrade cannot be ruled out. This is because: the goals of the parties are diametrically opposed to each other. Ensuring the ownership of Crimea and the occupation of Udon is clearly Russia’s bottom line. And Ukraine will not make concessions to Russia on issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity, and is determined to recover Ukrainian East and Crimea through war. The United States, NATO and the European Union have repeatedly affirmed their determination to defeat Putin.
Sullivan, the National Security Adviser to the President of the United States, recently emphasized three goals for the United States to achieve in the Russia-Ukraine war: first, an independent and free Ukraine; second, a weakened and isolated Russia; third, a strong , a united and determined West.
In order to achieve these goals, the United States and NATO EU countries not only significantly increased their aid to Ukraine, but the United States also passed the Lend-Lease Act for Ukraine for the first time after World War II. The United States has internationalized and institutionalized aid to Ukraine through the 41st Defense Ministers’ Meeting. More importantly, the direct participation of the United States, Britain and other countries in the war is deepening and the scope is expanding. All of this suggests that the war will be fought until Russia is defeated and punished.
3. The Russian-Ukrainian War and the New International Order.
The Russian-Ukrainian War completely ended the Yalta System and the remnants of the Cold War, and the world began to move towards a new pattern and order of international relations. After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia inherited the Soviet Union’s status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and a military superpower; Russia continues and retains a lot of the legacy and influence of the former Soviet Union in domestic politics, economy, society, culture and ideology; Russia’s foreign policy is A mix of the former Soviet Union and the Tsarist Empire.
(1) The core and primary direction of the Putin regime’s foreign policy is to regard the former Soviet Union as its exclusive sphere of influence, and to restore the empire relying on the integration mechanism in various fields dominated by Russia. For this reason, Russia is duplicitous and reneges on its promises. It has never truly recognized the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of other former Soviet countries, and frequently violates their territories and sovereignty. This is the greatest threat to peace, security and stability in the Eurasian region.
The Russian-Ukrainian War drastically changed this situation. After Ukraine became independent, especially since 2000, the two factions that advocated eastward and westward in Ukraine were basically evenly matched, and took turns ruling through elections. After Russia annexed Crimea and occupied eastern Ukraine in 2014, anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine rose, and pro-Russian forces began to shrink. Most Ukrainians, not only in the west but also in the east, support the country’s accession to the EU and NATO.
After the outbreak of the war, the situation in Ukraine has undergone fundamental changes. There is no political party, region, or class in Ukraine. It is united to fight against Russia and save the country. It can be said that Russia has completely lost Ukraine. At the same time, the countries of the former Soviet Union, except Belarus, including members of the Collective Security Treaty and the Eurasian Economic Union, refused to support Russia. The defeat of Russia will make it completely lose the possibility of rebuilding the old mountains and rivers and restoring the empire.
In order to gain the international status and influence of the Russian Empire or the former Soviet Union, break the existing international order, and change the geopolitical map of Eurasia and the world, Russia has a persistent pursuit of reuniting the former Soviet Union countries and restoring alliances or empires. . This has created a fundamental confrontation and conflict with the American West. This is the main contradiction and crux of Russia’s relations with the US and the West.
The competition and struggle between the two sides on this issue is to a large extent the continuation and reverberation of the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, and it also has a certain ideological color. Through this war, the confrontation and competition between Russia and the West of the United States ended in a complete failure of Russia. And finally ended the post-Cold War or the continuation of the Cold War.
(2) Several possible points of the evolution of the international order after the Russian-Ukrainian War:
1. Russia will be significantly weakened, isolated and punished in terms of politics, economy, military and diplomacy. Russian power will be even weaker. May be expelled from some important international organizations, and the international status will be significantly reduced.
2. Ukraine will break away from Russia’s orbit and sphere of influence (if Russia still has sphere of influence), and become a member of the European family, that is, a member of the West.
3. Other ex-Soviet countries may experience new and varying degrees of de-Russianization, and some countries will move more actively to the west.
4. Japan and Germany will be more active in striving for the status of political powers when they will completely get rid of the constraints of the defeated countries in World War II and accelerate the development of their armaments. But it will not break away from the Western camp, nor will it completely abandon the policy of peaceful development.
5. The United States and other Western countries will vigorously promote the substantive reform of the United Nations and other important international organizations. If the reform is blocked, it may also start anew. Both may draw a line with the so-called democratic and free ideology and exclude some countries such as Russia.
[Editor in charge: Liu Yang LY PN003]